Alt-A Losses Outstripping Expectations, Moody’s Says

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The performance of private-label residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) continues to face many challenges in 2012, with the biggest risk posed by strategic defaults, according to Moody’s.

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Alt-A Losses Outstripping Expectations, Moody’s Says Home price stall-out spreads from lower-priced homes to higher end The lack of inventory is particularly pointed in lower-priced homes, keeping first-time buyers on the sidelines. The low inventory has driven prices up rapidly. upturn in pending home sales.

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Additionally, the continued deterioration of the housing market has also contributed to the increased loss expectations for Alt-A pools. The actions listed below reflect Moody’s updated expected losses on the Alt-A sector announced in a press release on January 22, 2009, and are part of Moody’s on-going review process.

The expected loss parameters will be determined by using historical statistical relationships and macroeconomic predictions. For the portfolios outside the IRB approach, existing framework for loan loss provisions will be applied to set the parameters to measure credit risk. The lifetime risk assessment will be based on historical observations.

"Moody’s now expects that a trough in home prices will not be reached until the middle of 2010. In addition, based on recent loan loss severities, Moody’s will increase its projected lifetime loan losses for pools backing U.S. Jumbo, Alt-A, Option ARM, and Subprime RMBS issued between 2005 and 2008."

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